SALSA INDEXLIVE
4 SIGNALS MONITORED|STOCK MARKET: CLOSED
ย 
โšกBREAKING
APPROVAL โ–ฒ 0.0 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 โ–ฒ +5.7% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD โ–ฒ +0.14% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP โ–ฒ +0.4% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 15% /// SALSA INDEX: 47.5 โ€” MEDIUMAPPROVAL โ–ฒ 0.0 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 โ–ฒ +5.7% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD โ–ฒ +0.14% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP โ–ฒ +0.4% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 15% /// SALSA INDEX: 47.5 โ€” MEDIUM

๐ŸŒถ๏ธSALSA INDEX

Live Trump Pressure Dashboard

(Stress Always Leads to Softening & Adjustment)

Tracks 4 economic signals โ€” approval, S&P 500, yields, inflation โ€” to predict when Trump will reverse his own policies.

0100๐Ÿซ‘MILD๐ŸŒถ๏ธMEDIUM๐Ÿ”ฅHOT๐Ÿ’€EXTRA HOT๐ŸŒ‹INFERNO48SALSA INDEX

Scoville Level

๐ŸŒถ๏ธMEDIUM
๐ŸŒฎ TACO PROBABILITY
15%
Probability of policy reversal within 14 days
vs LIBERATION DAY (Apr '25): 90.5
CURRENT47.5
LIBERATION DAY90.5
+43.0 pts to reach Liberation Day peak
Mixed signals โ€” yields up 0.14%, inflation expectations rising. Index at 47.5 (MEDIUM). Markets watching for direction.
Approval
-19.7
โ–ฒ 0.0EASING
S&P 500
7,444.25
โ–ฒ +5.7%EASING
10Y Yield
4.46%
โ–ฒ +0.14%PRESSURE
Inflation Exp
3.8%
โ–ฒ +0.4%PRESSURE

๐ŸŒฎ TACO Event Timeline

๐ŸŒฎ
Iran 2-Week Ceasefire60
Apr 7, 2026
Trump threatened to annihilate Iranian civilization, then agreed to 2-week ceasefire contingent on reopening Strait of Hormuz. Oil dropped 18% to under $93.
โ†’ S&P 500 futures surged 2.1%. Oil crashed from $111 to $93. Dow futures up 1,000+ points.
๐ŸŒฎ
Iran 10-Day Extension82
Mar 27, 2026
Extended Iran nuclear deadline by 10 days to April 6 amid rising oil prices.
โ†’ Markets briefly relieved but uncertainty remains elevated.
๐ŸŒฎ
Greenland Walkback52
Jan 12, 2026
Dropped Greenland annexation rhetoric after NATO backlash and EU retaliation threats.
โ†’ NATO tensions eased. European markets recovered.
๐ŸŒฎ
Government Shutdown Deal54
Nov 12, 2025
Trump signed deal ending record 43-day government shutdown. Reversed mass layoffs of federal workers. Longest full shutdown in US history.
โ†’ Federal workers reinstated and paid. Shutdown ended after 43 days.
๐ŸŒฎ
China 1-Year Extension54
Nov 10, 2025
China tariff truce extended for one full year through November 2026.
โ†’ Significant de-escalation. Markets rallied on certainty.
๐ŸŒฎ
China Truce Extended48
Aug 12, 2025
90-day China tariff truce extended for another 90 days through November.
โ†’ Markets viewed as status quo. Muted but positive reaction.
๐ŸŒฎ
EU 50% Tariff Delay49
May 25, 2025
Threatened 50% tariff on EU by June 1. Delayed to July 9 after EU prepared retaliation.
โ†’ Relief rally in European and US markets.
๐ŸŒฎ
Fed Chair Powell Reversal82
Apr 22, 2025
Threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell, then publicly backed down after market selloff.
โ†’ Bond market calmed. Another TACO pattern confirmed.
๐ŸŒฎ
Liberation Day 90-Day Pause90
Apr 9, 2025
90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs after S&P crashed 12% in 4 days.
โ†’ S&P surged 9.5% in one day. $4T in market value restored.
๐ŸŒฎ
Canada/Mexico Tariff Pause70
Mar 5, 2025
25% tariff on Canada/Mexico applied Mar 4, paused for USMCA goods within 24 hours.
โ†’ Markets stabilized. First sign of TACO pattern.

Methodology

The SALSA Index combines 4-week changes in presidential approval ratings, S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yields, and 1-year inflation expectations. Each component is z-score normalized and equally weighted. The composite is scaled to 0-100 via the normal CDF. TACO probability is estimated via logistic regression calibrated against known reversal events. Full methodology โ†’

DISCLAIMER: The SALSA Index is an independent analytical tool created by Complex AI Institute. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced from Deutsche Bank AG. This tool is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or political advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.