SALSA INDEXLIVE
4 SIGNALS MONITORED|STOCK MARKET: CLOSED
ย 
โšกBREAKING
APPROVAL โ–ผ -21.4 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 โ–ผ -6.9% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD โ–ฒ +0.39% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP โ–ผ -0.6% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 90% /// SALSA INDEX: 90.7 โ€” INFERNOAPPROVAL โ–ผ -21.4 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 โ–ผ -6.9% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD โ–ฒ +0.39% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP โ–ผ -0.6% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 90% /// SALSA INDEX: 90.7 โ€” INFERNO

๐ŸŒถ๏ธSALSA INDEX

Strategic Analysis of Leadership Stress & Adjustment

0100๐Ÿซ‘MILD๐ŸŒถ๏ธMEDIUM๐Ÿ”ฅHOT๐Ÿ’€EXTRA HOT๐ŸŒ‹INFERNO91SALSA INDEX

Scoville Level

๐ŸŒ‹INFERNO
๐ŸŒฎ TACO PROBABILITY
90%
Probability of policy reversal within 14 days
vs LIBERATION DAY (Apr '25): 90.5
CURRENT90.7
LIBERATION DAY90.5
ABOVE Liberation Day peak
Three of four signals show pressure: approval down 21.4 pts, S&P 500 off 6.9%. Index at 90.7 (INFERNO). One more signal could tip the balance.
Approval
-41.1
โ–ผ -21.4PRESSURE
S&P 500
6,343.72
โ–ผ -6.9%PRESSURE
10Y Yield
4.44%
โ–ฒ +0.39%PRESSURE
Inflation Exp
3.4%
โ–ผ -0.6%EASING

๐ŸŒฎ TACO Event Timeline

๐ŸŒฎ
Iran 10-Day Extension83
Mar 27, 2026
Extended Iran nuclear deadline by 10 days to April 6 amid rising oil prices.
โ†’ Markets briefly relieved but uncertainty remains elevated.
๐ŸŒฎ
Greenland Walkback63
Jan 12, 2026
Dropped Greenland annexation rhetoric after NATO backlash and EU retaliation threats.
โ†’ NATO tensions eased. European markets recovered.
๐ŸŒฎ
China 1-Year Extension48
Nov 10, 2025
China tariff truce extended for one full year through November 2026.
โ†’ Significant de-escalation. Markets rallied on certainty.
๐ŸŒฎ
China Truce Extended52
Aug 12, 2025
90-day China tariff truce extended for another 90 days through November.
โ†’ Markets viewed as status quo. Muted but positive reaction.
๐ŸŒฎ
US-UK Trade Deal58
Jul 10, 2025
Limited trade agreement with UK reducing some tariffs on British goods.
โ†’ Modest positive reaction. Template for future deals.
๐ŸŒฎ
EU 50% Tariff Delay68
May 25, 2025
Threatened 50% tariff on EU by June 1. Delayed to July 9 after EU prepared retaliation.
โ†’ Relief rally in European and US markets.
๐ŸŒฎ
US-China Trade Truce71
May 12, 2025
US and China agree to 90-day tariff reduction. US cuts China tariffs from 145% to 30%.
โ†’ Major market relief. S&P up 3.2% in one session.
๐ŸŒฎ
Fed Chair Powell Reversal82
Apr 22, 2025
Threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell, then publicly backed down after market selloff.
โ†’ Bond market calmed. Another TACO pattern confirmed.
๐ŸŒฎ
Liberation Day 90-Day Pause90
Apr 9, 2025
90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs after S&P crashed 12% in 4 days.
โ†’ S&P surged 9.5% in one day. $4T in market value restored.
๐ŸŒฎ
Canada/Mexico Tariff Pause55
Mar 5, 2025
25% tariff on Canada/Mexico applied Mar 4, paused for USMCA goods within 24 hours.
โ†’ Markets stabilized. First sign of TACO pattern.

Methodology

The SALSA Index combines 4-week changes in presidential approval ratings, S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yields, and 1-year inflation expectations. Each component is z-score normalized and equally weighted. The composite is scaled to 0-100 via the normal CDF. TACO probability is estimated via logistic regression calibrated against known reversal events. Full methodology โ†’

DISCLAIMER: The SALSA Index is an independent analytical tool created by Complex AI Institute. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced from Deutsche Bank AG. This tool is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or political advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.