SALSA INDEXLIVE
4 SIGNALS MONITORED|STOCK MARKET: CLOSED
⚡BREAKING
APPROVAL ▼ -3.0 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 ▲ +4.6% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD ▲ +0.13% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP ▼ -0.2% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 25% /// SALSA INDEX: 54.6 — HOTAPPROVAL ▼ -3.0 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 ▲ +4.6% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD ▲ +0.13% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP ▼ -0.2% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 25% /// SALSA INDEX: 54.6 — HOT
🌶️SALSA INDEX
Live Trump Pressure Dashboard
(Stress Always Leads to Softening & Adjustment)
Tracks 4 economic signals — approval, S&P 500, yields, inflation — to predict when Trump will reverse his own policies.
Scoville Level
🔥HOT🌮 TACO PROBABILITY
25%
Probability of policy reversal within 14 days
vs LIBERATION DAY (Apr '25): 90.5
CURRENT54.6
LIBERATION DAY90.5
+35.9 pts to reach Liberation Day peak
Mixed signals — approval down 3.0 pts, yields up 0.13%. Index at 54.6 (HOT). Markets watching for direction.
Approval
-20.4
▼ -3.0PRESSURE
S&P 500
7,798.99
▲ +4.6%EASING
10Y Yield
4.68%
▲ +0.13%PRESSURE
Inflation Exp
4.6%
▼ -0.2%EASING
🌮 TACO Event Timeline
🌮
Iran Locked and Loaded Attack Cancelled72
Aug 1, 2026
Trump declared the US locked and loaded and ready to attack Iran at levels of military power not seen since World War II, then cancelled the attack the same weekend, saying it was subject to being able to rapidly make a deal.
→ Brent sank as much as 9.5% intraday on the next trading day to under $82 and closed down 5.0% at $83.52. WTI fell 6.1% to $79.49, a three-week low. Iran publicly denied any talks were underway.
🌮
Iran Strike Pause for Talks64
Jul 27, 2026
After threatening a major new attack and running 13 straight days of strikes on Iranian military and commercial sites, Trump paused the strikes to give negotiations another chance, citing very deep talks that Iran denied were happening.
→ Brent crude fell nearly 6% to under $91 a barrel after climbing 10% the previous week. The S&P 500 rose about 1% and Treasury yields dipped.
🌮
Iran War Deal Signed69
Jun 17, 2026
After threatening to annihilate Iran, striking its nuclear sites and blockading the Strait of Hormuz, Trump signed a deal ending the war. He lifted the naval blockade, eased sanctions, reopened the Strait, and released Iranian funds for food.
→ The largest single reversal of the saga. Oil crashed about 18% from its June high as the Strait risk premium unwound, and markets rallied on the de-escalation.
🌮
Iran Strikes Cancelled69
Jun 11, 2026
Threatened to hit Iran "very hard tonight" and seize oil infrastructure, then cancelled planned strikes hours later, saying a deal is "subject to finalization" with signing expected within days.
→ Dow surged 810 points (+1.6%), S&P +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.8%. Oil fell ~3.6% to under $87.
🌮
Iran 2-Week Ceasefire60
Apr 7, 2026
Trump threatened to annihilate Iranian civilization, then agreed to 2-week ceasefire contingent on reopening Strait of Hormuz. Oil dropped 18% to under $93.
→ S&P 500 futures surged 2.1%. Oil crashed from $111 to $93. Dow futures up 1,000+ points.
🌮
Iran 10-Day Extension82
Mar 27, 2026
Extended Iran nuclear deadline by 10 days to April 6 amid rising oil prices.
→ Markets briefly relieved but uncertainty remains elevated.
🌮
Greenland Walkback52
Jan 12, 2026
Dropped Greenland annexation rhetoric after NATO backlash and EU retaliation threats.
→ NATO tensions eased. European markets recovered.
🌮
Government Shutdown Deal54
Nov 12, 2025
Trump signed deal ending record 43-day government shutdown. Reversed mass layoffs of federal workers. Longest full shutdown in US history.
→ Federal workers reinstated and paid. Shutdown ended after 43 days.
🌮
China 1-Year Extension54
Nov 10, 2025
China tariff truce extended for one full year through November 2026.
→ Significant de-escalation. Markets rallied on certainty.
🌮
China Truce Extended48
Aug 12, 2025
90-day China tariff truce extended for another 90 days through November.
→ Markets viewed as status quo. Muted but positive reaction.
🌮
EU 50% Tariff Delay49
May 25, 2025
Threatened 50% tariff on EU by June 1. Delayed to July 9 after EU prepared retaliation.
→ Relief rally in European and US markets.
🌮
Fed Chair Powell Reversal82
Apr 22, 2025
Threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell, then publicly backed down after market selloff.
→ Bond market calmed. Another TACO pattern confirmed.
🌮
Liberation Day 90-Day Pause90
Apr 9, 2025
90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs after S&P crashed 12% in 4 days.
→ S&P surged 9.5% in one day. $4T in market value restored.
🌮
Canada/Mexico Tariff Pause70
Mar 5, 2025
25% tariff on Canada/Mexico applied Mar 4, paused for USMCA goods within 24 hours.
→ Markets stabilized. First sign of TACO pattern.
Methodology
The SALSA Index combines 4-week changes in presidential approval ratings, S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yields, and 1-year inflation expectations. Each component is z-score normalized and equally weighted. The composite is scaled to 0-100 via the normal CDF. TACO probability is estimated via logistic regression calibrated against known reversal events. Full methodology →
DISCLAIMER: The SALSA Index is an independent analytical tool created by Complex AI Institute. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced from Deutsche Bank AG. This tool is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or political advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.