SALSA INDEXLIVE
4 SIGNALS MONITORED|STOCK MARKET: CLOSED
ย
โกBREAKING
APPROVAL โผ -2.7 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 โฒ +2.5% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD โฒ +0.27% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP โผ -0.2% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 38% /// SALSA INDEX: 61.3 โ HOTAPPROVAL โผ -2.7 pts (4wk) /// S&P 500 โฒ +2.5% (4wk) /// 10Y YIELD โฒ +0.27% (4wk) /// INFLATION EXP โผ -0.2% (4wk) /// TACO PROBABILITY: 38% /// SALSA INDEX: 61.3 โ HOT
๐ถ๏ธSALSA INDEX
Live Trump Pressure Dashboard
(Stress Always Leads to Softening & Adjustment)
Tracks 4 economic signals โ approval, S&P 500, yields, inflation โ to predict when Trump will reverse his own policies.
Scoville Level
๐ฅHOT๐ฎ TACO PROBABILITY
38%
Probability of policy reversal within 14 days
vs LIBERATION DAY (Apr '25): 90.5
CURRENT61.3
LIBERATION DAY90.5
+29.2 pts to reach Liberation Day peak
Mixed signals โ approval down 2.7 pts, yields up 0.27%. Index at 61.3 (HOT). Markets watching for direction.
โฑ๏ธ Blink ClockDAY 16
Under heavy pressure since Sep 26 with no climbdown yet.
He usually blinks by day 12. Longest he held out: 34 days.
He usually blinks by day 12. Longest he held out: 34 days.
Past his usual breaking point. 7 past climbdowns measured.
Approval
-22.4
โผ -2.7PRESSURE
S&P 500
7,811.54
โฒ +2.5%EASING
10Y Yield
5.22%
โฒ +0.27%PRESSURE
Inflation Exp
4%
โผ -0.2%EASING
๐ SALSA History
Every daily reading since Trump's second term began. ๐ฎ marks each time he backed down.
Now
61.3
Peak
90.5Apr 4, 2025
Low
14.4May 7, 2025
TACOs
18 ๐ฎ
What drove it:
๐ฎ TACO Event Timeline
๐ธ The TACO Trade+1.1%average S&P 500 move the day he backs down. Higher a month later after 11 of 16.Close before each climbdown against the first close on or after it, then 7 and 30 days later. Not investment advice.
๐ฎ
Shutdown Mass-Layoff Policy Dropped75.5
Sep 25, 2026
The administration had made reductions in force a shutdown-exempt activity and issued RIF notices to thousands of federal workers during last year's 43-day funding lapse. Facing a union lawsuit, it settled and rescinded that authorisation.
โ RIF notices were rescinded and separated employees reinstated. OPM and OMB must tell agencies within 30 days that the shutdown layoff guidance is withdrawn; the suit is paused until year end.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +0.5%1 wk +0.2%1 mo soon
๐ฎ
China Truce Extended to January70.6
Sep 24, 2026
The US-China tariff truce was set to lapse in November. At the Trump-Xi summit the administration extended it to 10 January and agreed reciprocal tariff cuts on roughly $30bn of goods in each direction, plus Chinese coal purchases.
โ The truce held, but analysts called the two-month extension far shorter than expected, with rare earths, AI and Taiwan left unresolved.
๐ธ S&P 500Day 0.0%1 wk -0.5%1 mo soon
๐ฎ
Beef Tariff Waived on 300k Tons41.6
Aug 21, 2026
With ground beef at $6.89 a pound, up 57% in five years, Trump waived his own out-of-quota tariff on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef for 90 days, saying it would be sold 25% below market price.
โ The waiver runs to about 19 November. Cattle ranchers, part of his own base, objected that it floods the market and undercuts herd rebuilding.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +0.4%1 wk +0.9%1 mo +1.6%
๐ฎ
Canada 50% Tariff 3-Day Pause46.7
Aug 19, 2026
Section 338 tariffs of 50% on about $20.2bn of Canadian goods were due at 12:01am on 19 August. Under two hours before they took effect, Trump paused them until 22 August, saying a deal was close and the Keystone XL pipeline "may be awoken from the grave".
โ The pause expired without a deal. The 50% tariffs took effect on 22 August and Canada retaliated dollar for dollar on about $28bn of US goods from 8 September.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +0.2%1 wk -0.2%1 mo -0.5%
๐ฎ
Iran Locked and Loaded Attack Cancelled72
Aug 1, 2026
Trump declared the US locked and loaded and ready to attack Iran at levels of military power not seen since World War II, then cancelled the attack the same weekend, saying it was subject to being able to rapidly make a deal.
โ Brent sank as much as 9.5% intraday on the next trading day to under $82 and closed down 5.0% at $83.52. WTI fell 6.1% to $79.49, a three-week low. Iran publicly denied any talks were underway.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +1.0%1 wk +4.6%1 mo +3.7%
๐ฎ
Iran Strike Pause for Talks64
Jul 27, 2026
After threatening a major new attack and running 13 straight days of strikes on Iranian military and commercial sites, Trump paused the strikes to give negotiations another chance, citing very deep talks that Iran denied were happening.
โ Brent crude fell nearly 6% to under $91 a barrel after climbing 10% the previous week. The S&P 500 rose about 1% and Treasury yields dipped.
๐ธ S&P 500Day 0.0%1 wk +2.5%1 mo +3.6%
๐ฎ
Iran War Deal Signed69
Jun 17, 2026
After threatening to annihilate Iran, striking its nuclear sites and blockading the Strait of Hormuz, Trump signed a deal ending the war. He lifted the naval blockade, eased sanctions, reopened the Strait, and released Iranian funds for food.
โ The largest single reversal of the saga. Oil crashed about 18% from its June high as the Strait risk premium unwound, and markets rallied on the de-escalation.
๐ธ S&P 500Day -1.2%1 wk -2.0%1 mo -0.7%
๐ฎ
Iran Strikes Cancelled69
Jun 11, 2026
Threatened to hit Iran "very hard tonight" and seize oil infrastructure, then cancelled planned strikes hours later, saying a deal is "subject to finalization" with signing expected within days.
โ Dow surged 810 points (+1.6%), S&P +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.8%. Oil fell ~3.6% to under $87.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +1.8%1 wk +3.2%1 mo +4.2%
๐ฎ
Iran 2-Week Ceasefire60
Apr 7, 2026
Trump threatened to annihilate Iranian civilization, then agreed to 2-week ceasefire contingent on reopening Strait of Hormuz. Oil dropped 18% to under $93.
โ S&P 500 futures surged 2.1%. Oil crashed from $111 to $93. Dow futures up 1,000+ points.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +0.1%1 wk +5.4%1 mo +11.0%
๐ฎ
Iran 10-Day Extension82
Mar 27, 2026
Extended Iran nuclear deadline by 10 days to April 6 amid rising oil prices.
โ Markets briefly relieved but uncertainty remains elevated.
๐ธ S&P 500Day -1.7%1 wk +1.6%1 mo +10.8%
๐ฎ
Greenland Walkback52
Jan 12, 2026
Dropped Greenland annexation rhetoric after NATO backlash and EU retaliation threats.
โ NATO tensions eased. European markets recovered.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +0.2%1 wk -2.4%1 mo -0.4%
๐ฎ
Government Shutdown Deal54
Nov 12, 2025
Trump signed deal ending record 43-day government shutdown. Reversed mass layoffs of federal workers. Longest full shutdown in US history.
โ Federal workers reinstated and paid. Shutdown ended after 43 days.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +0.1%1 wk -3.0%1 mo -0.3%
๐ฎ
China 1-Year Extension54
Nov 10, 2025
China tariff truce extended for one full year through November 2026.
โ Significant de-escalation. Markets rallied on certainty.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +1.5%1 wk -0.8%1 mo +2.3%
๐ฎ
China Truce Extended48
Aug 12, 2025
90-day China tariff truce extended for another 90 days through November.
โ Markets viewed as status quo. Muted but positive reaction.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +1.1%1 wk +0.6%1 mo +3.4%
๐ฎ
EU 50% Tariff Delay49
May 25, 2025
Threatened 50% tariff on EU by June 1. Delayed to July 9 after EU prepared retaliation.
โ Relief rally in European and US markets.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +2.0%1 wk +2.3%1 mo +5.0%
๐ฎ
Fed Chair Powell Reversal82
Apr 22, 2025
Threatened to fire Fed Chair Powell, then publicly backed down after market selloff.
โ Bond market calmed. Another TACO pattern confirmed.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +2.5%1 wk +7.8%1 mo +13.3%
๐ฎ
Liberation Day 90-Day Pause90
Apr 9, 2025
90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs after S&P crashed 12% in 4 days.
โ S&P surged 9.5% in one day. $4T in market value restored.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +9.5%1 wk +5.9%1 mo +13.6%
๐ฎ
Canada/Mexico Tariff Pause70
Mar 5, 2025
25% tariff on Canada/Mexico applied Mar 4, paused for USMCA goods within 24 hours.
โ Markets stabilized. First sign of TACO pattern.
๐ธ S&P 500Day +1.1%1 wk -3.1%1 mo -12.2%
Methodology
The SALSA Index combines 4-week changes in presidential approval ratings, S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yields, and 1-year inflation expectations. Each component is z-score normalized and equally weighted. The composite is scaled to 0-100 via the normal CDF. TACO probability is estimated via logistic regression calibrated against known reversal events. Full methodology โ
DISCLAIMER: The SALSA Index is an independent analytical tool created by Complex AI Institute. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sourced from Deutsche Bank AG. This tool is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or political advice. Past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.